Quiet Forecast .... Suddenly, a K7 !!!

Propagation questions, answers and general information
Post Reply
User avatar
John Faulkner, Skegness
Posts: 5275
Joined: 19 Sep 2014 15:55
Location: Skegness, Lincolnshire. JO03dd
Contact:

Quiet Forecast .... Suddenly, a K7 !!!

Post by John Faulkner, Skegness » 25 Jan 2018 01:58

I think I opened my big gob again. DXLC were forecasting quiet conditions, right up to the 27th! Suddenly, it's blown out with a K of 7! It's just not possible to trust any forecasts anymore, yet the forecasters say they are more accurate than ever before. I dispute that.

satnipper
Posts: 1023
Joined: 03 Oct 2014 12:58
Location: Western Europe

Re: Quiet Forecast .... Suddenly, a K7 !!!

Post by satnipper » 25 Jan 2018 09:57

A forecast is an educated guess. It will have a reliability and probability factor involved with it. The VOACAP model for HF propagation can achieve 90% reliability figures though that means that they are wrong 1 day out of 10.

MF skywave propagation can not be predicted with any degree of reliability at the moment. There are simply too many parameters and there is no mathematical model that I know of. We can use heuristics such as low K and A = NA, high K and A = SA. But you can have many days of low K/A and poor NA propagation.

User avatar
John Faulkner, Skegness
Posts: 5275
Joined: 19 Sep 2014 15:55
Location: Skegness, Lincolnshire. JO03dd
Contact:

Re: Quiet Forecast .... Suddenly, a K7 !!!

Post by John Faulkner, Skegness » 25 Jan 2018 11:10

No problem with that. I'm sure you are absolutely right. It's just that, over the last few years I have seen these forecasters (NOAA and Met Office in particular) make amazing claims that their levels of accuracy have improved to an nth degree, yet their forecasts have become LESS reliable.

True enough, it's a guessing game. Predicting the future isn't going to be easy and I suppose it adds to the fun, sometimes.

Post Reply

Return to “Propagation”